[todaysdate]
By Blaine Stum
Like any field, there is no shortage of myths in politics. They are repeated ad nauseum by journalists, talk show hosts, activists and bloggers. Their spread and sheer persistence gives credence to Mark Twain’ famous quote, “A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes.” More importantly however, these myths can have real world consequences when they influence political parties, campaigns and legislation. That is why I wrote this post: in the hopes of challenging some of the “conventional wisdom” that often escapes criticism. To start the task, we will look at three major myths many people inside and outside of politics believe, and see what the research and evidence tells us so far.
1. Money Always Wins – In elections, money matters. Of that there is little doubt; but the extent to which money influences the outcome of an election is much less clear than you might think. Political scientists have spent decades researching this issue, at least since Gary Jacobson published the seminal study “The Effects of Campaign Spending in Congressional Elections” in 1978. Despite all that research, they have yet to reach a consensus on how money impacts the outcome of an election. Beyond the lack of a concrete consensus, there is also the problem of cause and effect: Did the candidate win because they raised more money? Or was the candidate able to raise more money simply because their chances of winning were higher to begin with? Much like star athletes in sports, a Congress persons’ track record of winning is likely to bring in more money; and untangling whether that money is the cause of their winning or simply a symptom of it is no small feat.
2. The Poor and The Republican – Talk to most Democrats in the country about elections, and they will probably express frustration that the economically poor “vote against their own self interest.” These poor people supposedly get duped into voting based on “social issues” that do not impact them, only to sacrifice their economic well being in the process. This narrative was popularly detailed in Thomas Franks’ bestselling book “What’s The Matter With Kansas?” and has since become official Cannon of the Democratic Party. Beyond being elitist, this sentiment misses the facts completely. The is that the poor have always been more likely to vote Democratic regardless of race; and this is true of poor rural voters as much as it poor urban voters. If anything, vote gains by the Republican Party have come disproportionately from middle and upper class people, not people with low incomes. Why Democrats choose to cling to the works of people like Franks is head scratching, but it is not near as bad as telling the disadvantaged what their interests should be.
3. Politicians and Promises – There are only a small handful of professions that are more widely maligned than that of politicians. Ask someone if they trust a politician, and they will probably laugh and reply with a hearty, “Hell no.” Politicians make promises on the campaign that they cannot keep, or simply break as soon as they get in to office. This dismal portrait of politicians is good red meat for self righteous conversation, but reality is a bit more complex. Political Scientists who have done the research legwork have found that Presidents from Woodrow Wilson to Jimmy Carter kept 75 percent of their promises. You might think to yourself, “But politicians are different now.” That’s true in some ways, but Obama has kept 45 percent of his over 500 distinct campaign promises, with another 24 percent requiring some compromise to become law and/or official policy and another 7 percent currently in the works. That 45 percent number is only low if you think the president has the powers of a dictator, or if you are a little too generous in believing we all keep our promises more often. I tend to think that the percentage of marriages that end up in divorce is a good indicator that none of us are anywhere close to perfect when it comes to keeping the promises we make however.
