Just five centuries ago, nobody would have predicted the astounding prosperity of the Western nations today. In the year 1500 the average Chinese person was richer than the typical American. Refined Asia, or even the highly educated Middle East, was far more likely to succeed than the backwards squabbling Europeans. Yet by the 20th century, Western nations controlled over 75 percent of the world’s wealth, and by 1970, the typical American was more than 20 times richer than the average Chinese. This unexpected rise to power by the West created a great divergence between the Western and non-Western world, but the rest of the world is fast catching up.
In his book “Civilization: The West and the Rest,” widely acclaimed professor Niall Ferguson compares the rise of the West to applications on a cell phone. The West succeeded by creating six “killer apps”: competition, science, the rule of law based on private property rights, medicine, the consumer society, and the work ethic. However, as other nations have downloaded these apps, Western societies are now in the process of deleting them. We have seen declines in competitiveness, shortcomings in education, and decaying institutions among many other problems while non-Western economies have made big gains in these areas. Life expectancy in some Eastern countries is now longer than the U.S. It is almost inevitable that there will soon be a transfer of power from the U.S. to the East.
Ferguson warns that transfers of power are typically times of world volatility. For example, when power last transferred from Europe to America there were two world wars. Unstable regions often read a leadership vacuum as a chance to make their stand on the world stage. Others vie for newfound power. For me, this matches with the decline of religions in the U.S. and the rise of the nones (those who claim no religion). But what will happen when declining power is coupled with a corroding religious convictions? Where will people who have lost their religion turn for solace in times of turmoil? Who will be the new messiah?
Wow, great question!
First, I want to challenge your assumption that there is some sort of marriage between these “killer apps” are “religious convictions.”
Let’s take a second look: “competition, science, the rule of law based on private property rights, medicine, the consumer society, and the work ethic.”
Of these social institutions, only the work ethic get’s the word “protestant” put in front of it. The other apps are largely a consequence of the enlightenment, a cultural event that happened 1000 years after the rise of Christianity (or any of the big 5 religions). So I think that your concern about the “nones” is ill-founded.
My own impression is that religious “nones” have emerged precisely because it is now possible to get most of your social, emotional and economic needs met without having to tie yourself to a religiously defined in-group. The rise of atheism is a sign of economic prosperity and social mobility: People are free to stop believing once they don’t need the church any more. Of course people have always doubted religious beliefs, but the internet has allowed us to organize.
Change. You’ve got to love it.
As for the decline of the west, I don’t suppose that Ferguson is proposing a complete slide into barbarism here. What I see going on is that the value of labor has dropped precipitously, so our middle class is going away. This puts us on the path to a very un-democratic society in which the rich act more or less like nobility and the rest of us are like surfs.
On the other hand, we have cell-phones and the internet. This means that people all over the world have already begun inventing new ways to live. So this dystopian future is hardly certain or even likely. Capitalism has always been a source of surprises and economic renewal. I don’t think you can count the west out yet.
Niall Ferguson has a great TED talk on this topic http://www.ted.com/talks/niall_ferguson_the_6_killer_apps_of_prosperity.html
Paul-
Thanks again for your comments. I agree with you and your assessment of the religious “nones”. There are now many alternatives to religion, and many no longer ascribe to the various religious myths. I also agree with your skepticism of Professor Ferguson’s warning.
However, my point on posting Professor Ferguson’s book was that there are side effects. I don’t share your confidence that the “nones” will fair very well without religion. It’s not known if people function well without a strong sense of religious orientation in their lives. Also, I hear many references to growing alienation in recent alternative music.
My post was to ask the question, what happens if this grand experiment doesn’t work very well? Who will pick up all the pieces?
Thanks Ernesto for posting the link. What were your thoughts on his talk?
I thought he had some good things to say, what I wondered, though, was maybe we are not watching the Decline of the West emerging of a new Geographic power, but when i look at Davos, Aspen, Ted conferences and the rest, it seems like there is emerging a new transinternational elite. People who engage with each other across countries and seem to forget their countrymen. The major universities throughout the world are starting to be more international. Yet, they seem to be more enclosed in a wealthy superclass. The very rich in China send their kids to Harvard, and the superrich American kids go on exchange trips to universities in China. Neither group will meet people populating their own slums. The rise of the international elite will be a big story in the next hundred years.
Thanks Ernesto- Interesting observation! Perhaps the growing divide between wealth classes is creating a situation where people fraternize more easily with others of their own wealth group than people of their own nationality? The breakdown of religion may add to this story in that there are fewer barriers with nationalities.
“My post was to ask the question, what happens if this grand experiment doesn’t work very well? Who will pick up all the pieces?”
I get this, I guess I just see it a different way. Society is a complex adaptive system. Economics, social mobility, disparity of wealth and lots of other factors go into who believe what and why. On top of all that you have personal choice. You seem to believe that religion is part of the “glue” that holds society together.
I don’t believe in God, but if this is indeed your assumption, then you might be surprised to learn that I agree with you. Religion provides structure, moral norms and community identity to billions of people, but I don’t think there is really so much to worry about, and here’s why:
BECAUSE society is a complex system, the loss of faith that people are evidencing is probably more of a symptom of other things. People use ideology to build identity. Because of economics, technology and other factors, people don’t need religion as much, so they are starting to break free of this ideological system. The key here is to realize that religion serves a variety of functions, that is, it solves a variety of problems in people’s lives. If they are turning their backs on religion it is because they have found other strategies for solving those problems, so there is no net loss to humanity.
On the contrary, history has shown again and again that secular thought is where the advances in technology, & philosophy take place. In addition, it is pretty well established statistically that atheists are some of the most law-abiding people in society. So I don’t think you need to worry to much about social disintegration.
What this change does mean is that in our pluralistic society, a growing number of people are finding alternate strategies for getting the community they need. I don’t know how they are doing this (the internet maybe?).
We live in an age where the sheer size of our communities is alienating to people. We were never meant to live in groups as big as modern cities. This means that people build sub-cultures. Religion is a source for this, but it’s not the only source. And it’s not like religion is going away. There are more people of faith on earth than at any other time in history (because there are more people of course). Human systems adapt. It’ll be fine.