Trump’s Threat to Ukraine, International Peace
So much is happening with former President Donald Trump it is sometimes hard to recognize the many threats he poses.
This last week an enormous amount of attention was paid, and rightly, to the 37-count federal indictment charging Trump with hiding classified documents, lying to investigators and other major security crimes. It is the first-ever federal indictment of a former president.
As many have written, this may be the most significant internal threat our democracy has faced since the Civil War.
Dangerous Narratives
In defending himself, Trump has again attacked the legal system, has continued to promote false and dangerous narratives about the 2020 election and has continued to vow retribution should he retake the White House.
And as occurred when he was charged with violating campaign finance laws, the indictment has strengthened his support within his base, within the Republican party, and even with his primary opponents who are forced to defend him, if even halfheartedly.
Much can happen between now and the 2024 presidential primaries and the general election.
Gaining Power
But even though Trump faces a growing number of civil and criminal investigations and potential indictments his standing as a presidential candidate only grows.
And the threats are not simply domestic.
As we learned in his first campaign and in his administration, Trump is an admirer of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Although allegations of Russian collusion with Trump in 2016 were never confirmed to any legal standard, we do know Putin supported Trump’s election and Russian content farms flooded American social media with false information and fake news.
During his administration, Trump expressed support for Putin, even admiration. Trump is a wannabe strong man. His efforts to hold on to power after his 2020 defeat are more Russian than American. He admires Putin’s ability to maintain a strong man’s control.
Putin and Trump
Trump’s admiration of Russia and its expansionist policies put him at odds with our NATO allies in Europe. The alliance, which has maintained peace in Europe for nearly 80 years, was fractured. Our allies, convinced they could not count on American support in times of crisis, began to take on more of their own defensive capabilities. Trump became a pariah at NATO meetings and economic summits.
At the same time Trump accused his political opponents, particularly Joe Biden, with involvement in Ukrainian corruption, without any evidence. Another of his big lies. And he showed nothing but disdain for Ukrainian leadership at the same time Putin was making his expansionist intentions clear, particularly in eastern and southern Ukraine.
President Biden rarely gets credit for his accomplishments. But rebuilding the NATO alliance following his election must be near the top of any success list.
Biden’s Leadership
When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Biden skillfully rebuilt the western alliance, helping orchestrate the military and civilian relief Ukraine requires to prosecute the war.
And NATO has grown. Concerned about Russia’s expansionism at their doorsteps, Sweden and Finland have joined, abandoning their previous neutrality. Soon NATO (and American) troops will be stationed in both countries, cooperating with their militaries.
Absent Biden’s skillful management, Ukraine could not have sustained itself against the Russian giant. This is not to take anything away from the courageous Ukrainian resistance. The Ukrainian armed forces and civilian population carry the burden of this war. Casualties are enormous, economic disruption devastating.
Victories Reported
But without western military assistance, defeat was inevitable. And now, as we enter the 2024 presidential election season, Ukraine has launched a massive counter offensive that is aimed at reclaiming occupied territory. The first victories in that offensive were reported Monday.
The Republican right is not happy with this development. A large wing of the party shares Trump’s admiration of Putin. They oppose any American involvement with Ukraine, oppose American aid.
If Trump were to win, there is a good likelihood he will scale back if not eliminate that aid.
The impact on the NATO alliance would be terrible. The impact on Ukraine would be devastating.
More Power
Such action would validate Putin’s actions. He would have no reason to scale back his ambitions.
And that is the existential threat that should terrify Americans.
The first of many lessons learned in World War II is that appeasement only empowers dictators and whets their appetite for more – more power, more control, more territory.
As many commentators have written, Trump’s raging against the legal system undermines the rule of law and threatens our democratic future. But it is also true, as other have said, that our system is robust and has survived other threats, will survive Donald Trump.
Less easily dismissed are the threats Trump poses to international peace and security and to the security of the United States.
If we abandon Ukraine, it is not just Ukrainians who will pay the price. Our security, our future, is at stake, too.
